The 2010 Senate Outlook

Recently, I decided that it would be a good idea to allow guest posts on this site. Ben, from the Keeler Political Report, is the first person to write a guest post on Whalertly, and he hopefully will not be the last. Feel free to check out his site, and, if you are interested in posting here on Whalertly, check out my rules for guest posts.

Thanks to the management and staff at Whalerty for the opportunity to offer up a guest post. I decided to tackle one of my favorite topics, the United States Senate, and the elections that go with it. Here is a very early look at the 2010 map. Of course, many things probably will and can change. 36 seats are up, including special elections in New York and Colorado. And as most people know, the current makeup of the Senate stands at 59 Democrats and Democrat aligned members, and 41 Republicans.

The cycle couldn’t have started out worse for the GOP as the scene was surveyed after the 2008 elections concluded. Obama had sky high popularity and the raw number of seats up were on the side of the Democrats. Arlen Specter switched parties to become a Democrat. “Comedian” Al Franken found enough votes and after a lengthy court case, he “defeated” incumbent Republican Norm Coleman. Democrats got to their magic number of 60 seats. In the meantime, five Republicans in purple states announced they wouldn’t seek reelection in 2010 – Kit Bond in Missouri, Judd Gregg in New Hampshire and George Voinovich in Ohio. Jim Bunning in Kentucky followed later in 2009 after first resisting calls to retire; he saw the writing on the wall and probably helped out the party by stepping aside, though certainly it was not the decision he wanted to make. Additionally, Mel Martinez in Florida resigned, and a placeholder was appointed for the rest of his term. Things looked grim. Slowly but surely, the political landscape has changed, and what once looked like another upper chamber massacre for our side tilted back in the direction of the Republicans.

I am operating under the same assumption of most; this will be a good year for the GOP, but at the same time I wouldn’t read too much into what recently happened in Massachusetts. November is still an eternity away.

Lets start with the safe seats as of right now. Barring major scandal, surprise retirement, or a major player entering the field late, the following senators will be returning as part of the next Congress, or the seat will almost assuredly switch hands due to an untimely retirement.

(* denotes appointed senator, bold face indicates likely party switch)

Democrats (7): Inouye (Hawaii), Mikulski (Maryland), Schumer (New York), Wyden (Oregon), Leahy (Vermont), Murray (Washington), Feingold (Wisconsin).

Republicans (12): Dorgan/Open (North Dakota), Brownback/Open (Kansas), Shelby (Alabama), Murkowski (Alaska), McCain (Arizona), Isakson (Georgia), Crapo (Idaho), Grassley (Iowa), Coburn (Oklahoma), DeMint (South Carolina), Thune (South Dakota), Bennett (Utah).

Murray and Feingold, polling has shown, are vulnerable if top-tier candidates enter the race. As of this writing, that has not happened yet. The GOP caught a huge break when Byron Dorgan announced he would not run again in 2010, and basically decided to hand the seat to the Republicans as opposed to running what would have been a tough reelection campaign.

Next up are the seats very likely to stay with the party who currently holds the seat or looking like they will switch.

Democrats (4): Boxer (California), Gillibrand* (New York), Dodd/Open (Connecticut), Bayh (Indiana).

Republicans (3): LeMieux*/Open (Florida), Kaufmann*/Open (Delaware), Vitter (Louisiana).

Mike Castle is likely to take over “Don’t mess with Joe” Biden’s old seat. I think he would have defeated Beau Biden either way, but this decision will allow the NRSC to have a great pickup opportunity and direct valuable money elsewhere. Either Crist or Rubio will likely hold the former Mel Martinez seat. I have an eye on Indiana; this seat could easily slip into the “lean category.” Democrats did catch one break when embatteled incumbent Chris Dodd decided he would rather retire than face a brutal battle in Connecticut and allowed state Attorney General Blumenthal to take his slot on the ballot. Blumenthal is likely to hold this seat for the Democrats.

The following seats lean towards one party, but could easily shift into the toss-up category.

Democrats (1): Burris*/Open (Illinois).

Republicans (1): Burr (North Carolina).

Burr looks like he is beatable, but no Democrat is polling above him. Many have Illinois as a pure toss-up, but I believe the partisan breakdown of each of these states will help carry the incumbent party to victory in November.

And now where the battle will be fought; the toss-up category. These are seats that could go either way and typically end up going one direction as a block. This was certainly evident in 2002, 2006, 2008, and to a lesser extent in 2004. Once the tide starts flowing one way, it is tough to stop, and is typically only overcome by scandal (Tim Hutchinson, Arkansas 2002) or campaign killing remarks (Pete Coors, Colorado 2004). Sometimes seat theft is a way to add to this tide (Minnesota 2008). Major mistakes in campaigns will also add to this wave, see George Allen in Virginia and Conrad Burns in Montana, both in 2006. The law of averages tells us this will happen in at least one race in this cycle as well, in a race to be determined.

Democrat Held (4): Lincoln (Arkansas), Reid (Nevada), Specter (Pennsylvania), Bennet* (Colorado).

Republican Held (4): Bunning/Open (Kentucky), Voinovich/Open (Ohio), Bond/Open (Missouri), Gregg/Open (New Hampshire).

All of the Democrats on the list have been shown to be trailing in recent polls. Lincoln and Reid look the most vulnerable on the left. Specter switched parties last year, knowing he would have likely lost a GOP primary to Pat Toomey. He now faces a primary against Congressman Joe Sestak. Bennet was appointed when Ken Salazar took a cabinet job and will face his first statewide election this fall.

Republicans have opened up an early lead in all of the seats they currently hold. In Missouri, expect a big battle between two well known names there, Blunt and Carnahan. Both sides face primaries in Kentucky. Rob Portman will be the GOP nominee in Ohio, and will face either Lee Fisher or Jennifer Brunner. Kelly Ayotte is likely to be the Republican in New Hampshire who faces off against Congressman Paul Hodes for the seat being vacated by Judd Gregg.

Summary: As we turn the page to February, the GOP looks in great shape to add to their numbers, Obviously a lot can happen between now and then, however.

If I had to pick right now, I would say the following seats would be gained by the Republicans: North Dakota, Delaware, Arkansas, Nevada, and Colorado. I think it is unlikely that the GOP will hold all of their open seats, and one will probably fall. Until the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania is settled, that one is just too close to call. If the Republicans do end up picking up the current 4 seats I predict, they will have 45 seats to the Democrats 55. Pennsylvania could end up being #46.

(Note: This analysis does not include the potential open seat in Texas, that could come open if Kay Bailey Hutchison resigns this spring, as she has said she will. I will believe this if it occurs. And if it does, the Republicans would be heavy favorites to retain the seat anyways).

- Ben Keeler